Predictions for the Web in 2011

Yes, it’s that time of year again, when everyone starts looking back at the previous year, and looking forward to what the next trip around the sun has in store. Web designers are no different, and in an industry built around constant change, the predictions come fast and furious. While 2010 brought about some incredible innovations – HTML5, CSS3, canvas, the iPad, apps, and real fonts for the web – 2011 seems to portend something much different.

1. Innovation becomes Implementation

While 2010 was about incredible innovation, 2011 will be the year of implementation. Designers spent all of 2010 learning and practicing with HTML5 and CSS3, yet were unable to implement these new techniques as widely and openly as they would have liked, thanks primarily to Internet Explorer. With IE9 hitting the market in larger numbers, and IE6 & 7 continuing to decline in marketshare, we can expect 2011 to see the burgeoning of HTML5, CSS3, and wider font support.

2. Font Overload

Designing with typography has become all the rage, and was perhaps the biggest design trend of the past year. Accordingly, designers realized CSS3’s most exciting feature was the added support for the @font-face property, and watched the sudden and meteoric rise of numerous font services. It was like Christmas and New Years rolled into one big fat party, and designers began exploring every possible typeface available. It wasn’t long before the type foundries found a way to monetize this, with services like typekit exploding in popularity almost overnight.  Yet we must now wonder, have we been given too many choices when it comes to webfonts? Do we risk seeing webpages overrun with font soup? Or will we see designers move away from this trend, toward the use of background video, or large graphic background images?

3. Redefining the Magazine for the Tablet

Much of the typography craze of 2010 found an outlet in 2 places, blogs and digital publications. With traditional print media finally transitioning to digital, we saw both designers AND publications apply their print design experience to digital media. The result was individually art-directed blog entries and the release of digital editions of many magazines and publications.

While this worked out well for many of the blogs, digital publications fared much worse. Despite an initial boom in downloads, most publications have seen their download rates steadily decrease. We can blame the lack of a subscription model from Apple, or the often ridiculously large file size of the publications, but the real problem is that the publications need to evolve to provide readers with the tools and the content they require. Simply exporting the publication as a PDF won’t suffice, even if you dress it up with some video.

The very definition of a magazine must change, and publications need to think less about a printed piece, and more about an interactive experience. There must be touch-based interactions and animations, large format video, social media integration, apps, games, commenting, and a great level of interaction that can’t be found on the printed version. With .net magazine re-launching their site and digital download this year, and other publishers developing tablet-specific publications, such as NewsCorp’s The Daily, and of course, the iPad2, 2011 will be the year we redefine magazines for the tablet.

4. A Return to the Past

It’s time to turn the clocks back to a simpler time, to a time before Google, when Yahoo ruled the Internet and Microsoft Internet Explorer was the greatest browser in the world. That’s right folks, welcome to 1998. So dust off those tables because 2011 will see more and more companies making better use of email marketing. Tried and true, email became the red-headed stepchild of a company’s marketing campaign in 2010, having given way to the social media buzz. As exciting and extraordinary social media is right now (The Social Network, Zuckerberg on SNL, Twitter being used to organize global revolutions, for example), constant twittering and update posting wasn’t for everyone, especially smaller companies whose audience isn’t tech-savvy. 2010 saw many companies try and fail with social media, and while it won’t go away, more companies will reinvest in their email marketing programs, where they can guarantee eyeballs on their messages, and can track CTR and other statistics thorugh the increasingly robust tracking tools now offered by email services.

5. Challengers to Google

Once deemed the greatest search engine ever, Google has been facing more complaints and more competition this year and that trend will continue as the over-monetization of search rankings and ad placements threatens to transform Google from an encyclopedia of information to the Yellow Pages. We’ve seen many of Google’s top engineers jump ship, many starting their own search engines, like Blekko, while Google in turn focuses more energy on Android, Chrome, and the ChromeOS. No one can deny, Google has its hands in quite a few pots right now, but is this ultimately hurting them? Have they spread themselves too thin? Have they become too big? Have they lost sight of what made them so popular?

6. Continued iPad Dominance

The iPad was a bigger hit than anyone anticipated. Market forecasters predicted Apple would sell just over 3 million units. They sold nearly 15 million units. Say that aloud. 15 Million Units. Wow. So can we expect the iPad2 to move as many units. It’d be crazy to think so. Call me crazy… but given all the new features, and the availability of the device on Verizon, I think it’s safe to say the device will sell like hotcakes made with crack and diamonds.  The addition of a webcam, combined with Apple’s FaceTime will be a huge bonus that will cause many current iPad owners to upgrade. With more apps hitting the market each day, we can only anticipate growth for the iPad to continue at an ever increasing rate.

7. Ongoing Debates over Flash and HTML5 Video

I’m almost dreading this topic, as it’s been discussed to death over the past year. I’ll leave my prediction at this: Don’t expect these debates to end anytime soon.

8. Social Media Burnout

While I’ve already touched on the disappointing experience many companies encountered when attempting to launch their social media campaigns, I’ve begun hearing a large amount of social media fatigue from both companies and individuals. Indeed many of my friends have begun posting less, especially as Facebook continues to frustrate its users with ever increasing invasions of supposed ‘online privacy’ (like there is such a thing). Has Facebook reached its zenith? An Oscar-nominated blockbuster and a $50Bn valuation would seem to scream a resounding “YES”. Facebook certainly isn’t going anywhere, but it’s buzz has all but disappeared. While twitter is helping galvanize revolutions in the Middle East, Facebook is busy selling your data to advertisers.

9. The Internet Goes Local

Groupon was all the rage at the end of 2010, and will continue to be so in 2011. After many years of failure, someone finally found a way to successfully reach the local marketplace. And it’s certainly taken even less time for everyone else to jump on this trend. Google Places has the rudimentary elements already in place, but as usual, their lack of vision has led them to fumble yet another huge opportunity. They built these great localization tools, but without any idea of what to do with them. One can only wonder what Facebook has in store as it attempts to enter the local marketplace.

In the end, only time will reveal what the year has in store. While 2010 saw a revolution in the tools designers have at their disposal, 2011 will be the year we truly discover what they are capable of producing.